Now in it's legendary 4th year and fashionably late.
Did I get 2014 right? Did I lose 10Kgs? Well yes and then no. It went. It came back.
As for the other predictions I think I got some right and some wrong as ever. Who could have predicted that Law and Lease blog winning a prize at the NOTB Resi Awards? Well deserved I think. I am going to enter this year. I love prizes.
More than 11,000 independent views of my blog now and only 65 comments. My first prediction therefore is that I am going to have to be much more controversial.
1. I am going to be much more controversial.
2. ARMA Q is live. I am predicting that it has been a success in terms of the numbers signing up - follow ARMA's Twitter feed if you want to hear who is through the stiff requirements so far. Next stage will be to demonstrate that it has teeth.
3. Reducing energy costs. This is good news for those of us that work in a one year contract market and for our customers. Real savings in gas supplies are only slowly feeding through now. Who knows what this will mean for biomass costs?
4. CMA. Carry on as before.
5. The rise of PRS at last....no really. Look out for genuine attempts to deliver a fully integrated management service.
6. LKP will this year become a real force for leasehold advocacy and generally a force for good. Their opinions have become more balanced and measured - they have real influence and this must be used with care if they are to influence the future of the sector. We should all embrace them.
7. The appointment of Roger Southam to chair LEASE is bound to be controversial. Roger has strong opinions and will undoubtedly shake things up - he knows property management inside out. He is a genuine consumer champion and should be welcomed as a breath of fresh air.
6. After a couple of years, where no one really knew if they were behaving correctly in accordance with S.20, I predict a year of quiet reflection and a return to the old fashioned values pre Phillips v Francis. Actually that's nonsense, I expect the next new thing to be [fill in your own concern here]. (Mine is fees for underletting, I am still unclear as to what is reasonable. I am personally being charged annually for a letting that is holding over on the initial terms. Can that be right? Proxima would suggest not.)
7. Deflation - could it happen? All the pointers are there.... 3-4 years of low oil prices to come, decreasing demand for goods from ageing population, historically low interest rates, supermarket price wars etc. etc.
8. House prices could go down or remain stubbornly static. No-one is going to get any meaningful capital growth and service costs continue to rise on complex schemes. There is a reckoning coming and it will have a big impact across the sector. As ever London will lead.
9. Insurance costs for leaseholders continue to rise and flooding of leasehold flats will remain outside the government's Flood Re arrangements - they still see block costs as a commercial insurance risk.
10. No one imminently is revisiting S.20 thresholds despite many voices asking for a review. Expect more and more requests for dispensation under S.20za.
11. IRPM will make some important announcements at their annual seminar. They will have some great speakers too and I will be lucky enough to speak (for the one and only time) in the round theatre of the Royal Institution where both Faraday and that smiley chap from D:Ream have spoken.
Errr, and that's it really. Another year flies by and the new one is now well underway. I would like to express more optimism but the economics do worry me greatly. Residential managers continue to do a brilliant and entirely necessary job in increasingly complex and pressurised environments, keeping us safe secure and watertight in our homes. They really need a big hoorah! from time to time.
Did I get 2014 right? Did I lose 10Kgs? Well yes and then no. It went. It came back.
As for the other predictions I think I got some right and some wrong as ever. Who could have predicted that Law and Lease blog winning a prize at the NOTB Resi Awards? Well deserved I think. I am going to enter this year. I love prizes.
More than 11,000 independent views of my blog now and only 65 comments. My first prediction therefore is that I am going to have to be much more controversial.
1. I am going to be much more controversial.
 |
| I predict forests in the sky. Not. |
3. Reducing energy costs. This is good news for those of us that work in a one year contract market and for our customers. Real savings in gas supplies are only slowly feeding through now. Who knows what this will mean for biomass costs?
4. CMA. Carry on as before.
5. The rise of PRS at last....no really. Look out for genuine attempts to deliver a fully integrated management service.
6. LKP will this year become a real force for leasehold advocacy and generally a force for good. Their opinions have become more balanced and measured - they have real influence and this must be used with care if they are to influence the future of the sector. We should all embrace them.
7. The appointment of Roger Southam to chair LEASE is bound to be controversial. Roger has strong opinions and will undoubtedly shake things up - he knows property management inside out. He is a genuine consumer champion and should be welcomed as a breath of fresh air.
6. After a couple of years, where no one really knew if they were behaving correctly in accordance with S.20, I predict a year of quiet reflection and a return to the old fashioned values pre Phillips v Francis. Actually that's nonsense, I expect the next new thing to be [fill in your own concern here]. (Mine is fees for underletting, I am still unclear as to what is reasonable. I am personally being charged annually for a letting that is holding over on the initial terms. Can that be right? Proxima would suggest not.)
7. Deflation - could it happen? All the pointers are there.... 3-4 years of low oil prices to come, decreasing demand for goods from ageing population, historically low interest rates, supermarket price wars etc. etc.
8. House prices could go down or remain stubbornly static. No-one is going to get any meaningful capital growth and service costs continue to rise on complex schemes. There is a reckoning coming and it will have a big impact across the sector. As ever London will lead.
9. Insurance costs for leaseholders continue to rise and flooding of leasehold flats will remain outside the government's Flood Re arrangements - they still see block costs as a commercial insurance risk.
10. No one imminently is revisiting S.20 thresholds despite many voices asking for a review. Expect more and more requests for dispensation under S.20za.
11. IRPM will make some important announcements at their annual seminar. They will have some great speakers too and I will be lucky enough to speak (for the one and only time) in the round theatre of the Royal Institution where both Faraday and that smiley chap from D:Ream have spoken.
Errr, and that's it really. Another year flies by and the new one is now well underway. I would like to express more optimism but the economics do worry me greatly. Residential managers continue to do a brilliant and entirely necessary job in increasingly complex and pressurised environments, keeping us safe secure and watertight in our homes. They really need a big hoorah! from time to time.
