My Predictions for the Leasehold Management Sector 2014

Now in its legendary third year!

It is getting more difficult not to predict the stark staring obvious so forgive me if it all seems a little err... meh!

Major works due

1. I will lose 10 kilos. Yes, I've said it before, but this time....
2. The first ARMA Q accredited agents will discover a distinct competitive advantage. Seems to me that it is pretty self evident that customers will want the standards set out in the Consumer Charter and will want those agents included in their re-tenders.
3. ARMA membership went through 300 corporate members as I predicted last year. I think 350 is not an unreasonable expectation for this year - especially given role out of ARMA Q and the OFT's scrutiny of the industry during the coming year.
4. A good number of buildings, especially tall ones built in the last 15 years, will find that the costs of their first scheduled major external refurbishments are massively under budgeted. This is an issue that is looming for the industry as the developments of the last boom come towards their first truly major costs. Short term savings of previous years will start to cost a later generation of owners significantly.
5. The real cost of management will continue to rise as a consequence of increasing energy costs and materials costs across the board. 
6. Syndicated purchasing, procurement expertise and collective negotiation will become important tools for residents and agents - despite the difficulties afforded by a 'one year contract' world. Expect to see lots of S.20 notices.
7. Specialist skills and expertise in asset management with a residential angle will become increasingly important  as residential build to rent schemes start to appear. Again, procurement and cost control expertise will be paramount.
8. There will be continued downward pressure on management fees. Agents will continue to supplement management with letting, resales and other associated services. No one really believes that £100 - £150 per unit, pro rata, represents a satisfactory fee for leasehold block management.
9. The OFT investigation into residential leasehold management will find that many of the issues that have historically concerned consumer groups are being weeded out and that their is genuine impetus to continue to improve services across the sector.
10. The OFT will not find the same conclusions as in Scotland which was a.) not leasehold, b.) had no ombudsman and c.) had no tribunal system. 
11. New Scottish regulatory requirements will lead to a new group of members for the IRPM.
12. Without apology, (although I was wrong) this one is lifted directly from 2013s' predictions. I anticipate more partnership and collaboration amongst agents, as specialities and regional strengths make working together more likely to 'delight' clients than struggling to do it alone. This opportunity seems to have been taken in many other industries in recent times and I think it will work well in property management.
13. In answer to your question. No, I cannot predict the outcome of the appeal in Phillips and Goddard v Francis. It is also a complete coincidence that this is point 13.
14. Until there is a universal form of regulation there will be yet more new entries to the market - since it continues to have no real barriers and an almost uniquely advantageous way of collecting its fees - in advance, in accordance with the lease.
15. Scrutiny will fall upon registered social landlords and local authorities who manage a significant proportion of leasehold property stock and some of whom have been guilty of hair raising errors of judgement in the last couple of years. They must be included in the scope of the OFT investigation.
16. I might be imagining it, but the quality of judgements from the First-tier Tribunal (Property Chamber) seem to be excellent. I hope this is a continuing trend.
17. It really is time to look at rent charges on freehold houses. This area is growing rapidly and remains outside of service charge legislation. Again, I hope the OFT takes note. 
18. New blood. Good to see some new faces coming in to the industry and challenging the norms. I expect that to be theme this year.

Another difficult year ahead, but one which I believe continues to present opportunities to good managing agents who are willing to adapt to new markets and new expectations. There is no doubt that this will involve (if it has not already) some investment in processes and procedures to meet ARMA Q standards and customer and client expectations. A rising housing market is welcomed too since it reduces pressure on our customers and makes our clients more confident.